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Software Development Estimation: Methods, Process, Tools

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01st Apr, 2024
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    Software Development Estimation: Methods, Process, Tools

    In this fast-paced, growing software development environment, it is essential to understand how long it will take to make a software. While doing so, several parameters need to be taken care of, such as: how hard the project is, how big it is, and who is working on it. Estimating these parameters will help the teams to make smart choices, increase their flexibility and team bonding, and allow them to use software tools that help manage projects to smart programs that use data to predict how long things will take; teams have lots of options to make estimating easier and more accurate and enhance their overall efficiency. If you want to broaden your knowledge in software development, I recommend enrolling in Software Engineer Bootcamp training to advance your skills further.

    In this article, I will discuss software development estimation, the different methods, tools, and processes that different teams can use to figure out how long a project will take and how much it will cost.

    What Is Software Development Estimation?

    Software Development Estimation analyzes various aspects of the project, such as its scope, complexity, and requirements, to come up with realistic estimates of how long it will take to finish, and the number of resources and effort needed. By doing so, the overall cost of the project is also estimated. This is a crucial step in project planning and management as it gives insight into the project and helps the stakeholders, including project managers, developers, and clients, understand the project's scope, set realistic deadlines, and allocate resources efficiently. 

    Where estimation has so many advantages, it also has some major challenges. Some of the biggest challenges are due to the dynamic behavior of software development, including technological uncertainties, growing requirements, and unforeseen obstacles. So, to avoid these problems, specific methods are used in the industry, ranging from traditional methods like expert judgment and historical data analysis to more modern approaches like agile estimation and probabilistic modeling.

    Using these software development methods, all the stakeholders clearly understand the project outcomes, allowing them to manage the development process from start to finish effectively.

    Why is Software Development Estimation Important?

    There are numerous software development advantages, some of which are listed below:

    • Resource Optimization: It is important to optimize resource utilization by ensuring that the teams are neither overburdened nor underutilized, and here’s where estimation comes into the picture. Organizations can maximize productivity and avoid unnecessary expenses by accurately forecasting resource requirements.
    • Time Management: Estimations give a clear roadmap of the project milestones, and assigning deadlines to the team is easy. By doing so, the organization can prioritize tasks, schedule activities, and monitor progress, ensuring timely delivery of the final product.
    • Competitive Advantage: If the estimation is done correctly, it gives a competitive advantage by building trust between the team and the client, increasing the chances of getting more contracts and new business opportunities.
    • Scope Management: To ensure that the features and functionalities to be included, the project stay on track, and the estimated targets are reached within the given timeframe, estimation plays a crucial role in defining and managing project scope effectively. 
    • Decision Making: Data is gathered through estimation, which helps decision-making at different project stages. From resource allocation or risk management to assigning project priorities, this data is estimated data is important.
    • Performance Evaluation: Evaluation of team performance and project outcomes against initial projections is done through estimation. By doing proper estimation and comparing these estimated values with the actual results, organizations can assess the accuracy of their estimation methods and identify areas for improvement in future projects.

    What are the Different Software Development Estimation Techniques?

    There are many software development estimation techniques, each with a different approach and advantages. Here are some of the major approaches listed below:

    1. Bottom-up Estimation

     Bottom-up Estimation

    It is an estimation technique used in software development and project management. This method works by breaking down the project into smaller, more manageable tasks such that the team effort, resources, and duration required for each task can be estimated correctly. To imply the Bottom-up Estimation techniques, these steps are to be followed:

    • First, identifying all the tasks is crucial to completing the project. These tasks should be specific, measurable, and well-defined to ensure accurate estimation.
    • After successfully identifying all tasks, they must be further divided into sub-tasks. This division will continue until each task represents a manageable unit of work that can be estimated independently.
    • The next step is to make estimations for these individual tasks, depending on the complexity, the skills required, historical data, and expert judgment of that task.
    • After the proper estimation, resources such as manpower, equipment, and materials are allocated to the tasks based on their requirements and dependencies.

    There are many advantages of Bottom-up Estimation, such as:

    • It gives a detailed and accurate image of the project
    • There is transparency between the stakeholders 
    • Identification of potential risks. 
    • Flexibility

    However, there are certain disadvantages as well:

    • The process is time-consuming. 
    • Relies heavily on the expertise and judgment of the estimation team.
    • For innovative and unique projects, historical data is limited.

    2. Three-Point Estimation

    3-point estimation
    projectmanagement.info 

    This is a more accurate estimation technique, which is also known as three-point estimating or triangular distribution, that uses three different scenarios for each task or project; these three different scenarios are optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely, and these three are described below: 

    • Optimistic Estimate (O): As the name suggests, this scenario assumes that all processes will go smoothly without any delays, issues, or obstacles, and due to this optimistic approach, this is also known as the best-case scenario. It assumes all the ideal conditions and ensures all tasks are completed in minimum time or effort.
    • Pessimistic Estimate (P): This represents the worst-case scenario where unforeseen problems, delays, or challenges occur, leading to significant disruptions or setbacks. In this scenario, maximum time and effort are required to complete the task.
    • Most Likely Estimate (M): This estimation scenario is developed based on the team’s knowledge and experience and is the most realistic scenario. 

    Out of the different methods used for calculating the overall estimate using three-point estimation, one of the most common methods is the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) formula:

    PERT Formula

    Using this formula, we can get a weighted average of the optimistic (O), pessimistic (P), and most likely (M) estimates in which the most likely estimate has more weight, which reflects its greater relevance. Some of the advantages of three-point estimation include:

    • Risk Management
    • Accurate Estimation
    • Confidence Level
    • Some of the disadvantages are:
    • Subjectivity is based on the judgment and experience of the estimation team.
    • Complexity of task

    3. Parametric Estimation

    In parametric estimation, parameters like duration, effort, or project cost are calculated by establishing a relationship between these parameters and historical data. This method uses mathematical modeling to estimate project characteristics based on known variables, unlike other estimation techniques that depend on the detailed task breakdown. The following steps need to be taken to use the parametric estimation technique.

    • The first step is identifying the most essential parameters, such as size, complexity, technology used, and team experience.
    • The next step is to develop a parametric model based on historical data and statistical analysis. This model can be of any form, like an equation, algorithm, or lookup table.
    • Then, these models need to be calibrated to check their accuracy and reliability.
    • Once the parametric models are developed and calibrated, they can be applied to estimate new projects' duration, effort, or cost.
    • Some of the advantages of the parametric solutions are:
    • Improved Efficiency 
    • Consistent approach to estimation
    • More Accuracy
    • However, parametric solutions have some disadvantages as well:
    • Dependency on historical data
    • Sensitivity to Assumptions

    4. Relative Sizing

    While doing software development estimation. Instead of assigning absolute values, the relative sizing method estimates the complexity of tasks, features, or user stories relative to each other. Relative sizing provides a comparative assessment using reference points or benchmarks to anchor the estimation process.

    Some key advantages of relative sizing are:

    • It simplifies estimation.
    • Provide flexibility in estimation.
    • Enhance collaborative decision-making.
    • Agile Compatibility.
    • It has some disadvantages as well, including:
    • Lack of Precision.
    • Subjective assessments and bias judgments.
    • Limited Comparability.
    • Risk of Misinterpretation.

    5. Wideband Delphi

    Wideband Delphi is a structured estimation technique used for forecasting future tasks or project efforts and is used in project management and software development.

    The Wideband Delphi includes the following processes:

    • The first step is to find an expert with diverse experience and knowledge in the respected field.
    • The next step is to determine the scope and requirements of the project.
    • Now that the scope and requirements are determined, each expert gives their estimate (in terms of time, effort, or any relevant metric) without interacting with each other. 
    • All these estimates are gathered and compiled, and after the successful compilation, a group discussion is carried out where experts can present and discuss their estimates.
    • Based on the experts' inputs, consensus is calculated and revised based on the feedback.
    • Some of the major advantages of the Wideband Delphi method are:
    • Diverse Expert Input.
    • Reduced Bias.
    • Structured Communication.
    • Statistical Consensus.
    • Iterative Process.

    This method has some disadvantages as well, including:

    • Time-consuming and resource-intensive.
    • Dependent on expert availability.
    • Overemphasis on Consensus.
    • Complexity for Small Projects.

    The Process of Software Development Estimation

    By software development estimation, we mean forecasting the effort, time, and resources required to complete a software project. This is a crucial step as it gives all the stakeholders a clear picture of the project, allowing them to make decisions more efficiently. The key steps in the software development estimation process are: 

    • Clearly defining the scope of the project
    • Breaking down tasks into smaller and more manageable tasks
    • Collect detailed requirements from all stakeholders
    • Based on the project requirements, select the right estimation method
    • Get expert judgment for more accurate estimation
    • Analogous estimation by using historical data
    • Parametric estimation
    • Three-point estimation
    • Consider task dependencies
    • Identify potential risks
    • Validate the estimates with stakeholders and document the estimation results
    • Regularly monitor the progress of the project and update the estimates as needed

    Project management and planning tools commonly used in the context of software development.

    Software Development Estimation Tools

    1. Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)

    A work breakdown structure represents the total work that is to be done by the project team hierarchically. It helps to organize the work into smaller and more manageable pieces. By doing so, we understand the scope of the software development project, and it gives a visual representation of the project's components and their interrelationships. WBS can be categorized into three major components that include:

    • Work packages
    • Deliverables
    • Tasks

    There are certain advantages of using WBS, such as:

    • It gives a structural overview of the project.
    • Task allocation and resource management are easily carried out through WBS.
    • More accurate estimation is achievable by dividing the project into small, manageable tasks.

    2. PERT Chart (Program Evaluation and Review Technique)

    PERT charts are made to visually represent project tasks, their dependencies, and the expected time it will take to complete each task. With the help of these charts, we can prioritize the tasks in the order they should be completed.

    There are three major components of PERT charts:

    • Nodes
    • Arrows
    • Duration
    • Some of the benefits of the PERT chart are:
    • Visualization of the project task.
    • Prioritize the important tasks so that they must be completed on time for the project to finish on schedule.

    3. Product Backlog

    Product backlog is a tool that prioritizes inventory encompassing features, improvements, and bug fixes, representing the entirety of tasks for a product. It holds three key purposes in the realm of software development:

    • Prioritizing the tasks. 
    • Detailing 
    • Visibility and transparency.

    Product backlogs' major advantages are flexibility, prioritization, and transparency.

    Some disadvantages include uncertainty and dependence on the product owner.

    How to Estimate Cost and Effort in a Software Development Project?

    Several steps need to be taken care of while estimating the software development effort and cost. Some of them are:

    • Defining project scope clearly. 
    • Breakdown of big and complex tasks into small and manageable tasks.
    • Using the right estimation technique based on the project requirement.
    • Proper estimation tools and platforms should be used.
    • Consider risks and dependencies.
    • Review and validate the estimates with key stakeholders.

    Common Software Development Estimation Mistakes, and How Do You Avoid Them

    Some of the very common software development estimation mistakes and their avoiding methods are given below:

    • Highly optimistic estimation of time, effort, and resources causing unrealistic expectations. Techniques like three-point estimation can be used to avoid this problem.
    • Ignoring the dependencies and risks can lead to underestimating project complexity; to avoid this problem, a risk assessment should be done.
    • Lack of historical data can lead to inaccurate estimates. To avoid this problem, historical data from past projects should be gathered.
    • Overlooking non-development activities can lead to incomplete estimates. This can be avoided by considering all the phases of software development.

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    How Project Manager Helps Software Development Estimation

    The project manager plays an important role in the software development estimation process by providing proper guidance and validating the estimated data so that the set deadlines are realistic and aligned with the project objectives. Here's how project managers help with software development estimation:

    • Facilitates estimation sessions with the team.
    • Define project goals and scope. 
    • Give context and relevant information to the team.
    • Ensuring Consistency. 
    • Identifying potential risks.

    Conclusion

    In conclusion, software development estimation is a bit complex yet crucial step for effectively planning and managing software projects. It gives us a clear insight into the project timeline, resources, and overall cost by analyzing various aspects such as scope, complexity, and requirements. Despite having these benefits, it also has some challenges, and to deal with those challenges, various estimation methodologies, and techniques are available, ranging from traditional methods like expert judgment and historical data analysis to more modern approaches like agile estimation and probabilistic modeling. Project managers also play a vital role in this overall process of software development estimation. I suggest you consider KnowledgeHut's Software Engineer Bootcamp training program to strengthen your grasp on software engineering principles. This course also guides world-class instructors with extensive industry experience.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    1Why is making software development estimation so hard?

    Software development estimation is complex and challenging due to several reasons, such as:

    • There are technical uncertainties, and the requirements are evolving.
    • The complexity of software projects is high. 
    • There is a huge amount of variation there based on the size and scope of the project. 
    • External factors, such as market conditions, affect the software development environment.

    2How do you estimate development effort?

    To estimate the software development effort, we must calculate the time, resources, and expertise required to complete specific tasks. Some of the common techniques for estimation development efforts are:

    • Judgment by experts 
    • Using historical data for estimation
    • Three-point estimation 
    • Parametric Estimation 
    • Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
    • Delphi Technique
    • Bottom-Up Estimation

    3How can historical data be used in software development estimation?

    Historical data are crucial in software development estimation, giving valuable insights and benchmarks to inform future estimates. They can be taken as a reference point if the past projects are similar in size, complexity, and technology stack. Moreover, the parametric estimation method can be used as it requires historical data to establish mathematical relationships.

    4How do changes during the development process impact project estimation?

    If changes are made in the software development process, it can have a huge impact on project estimation. Some of the major challenges are:

    • The project scope will change if new requirements are introduced or any change is made to the existing requirements.
    • The whole project timeline needs to be adjusted according to the change.
    • Resource reallocation.
    • Changes may introduce new risks.

    5What is the difference between effort estimation and duration estimation in software development?

    These are two different sides of software development estimation, where effort estimation focuses on quantifying the amount of effort or work that needs to be expended by the development team. In contrast, the main aim of duration estimation is to predict the elapsed time or duration required to complete a certain task.

    Profile

    Simran Kaur Arora

    Trainer & Consultant

    Experienced Senior Content Developer with a demonstrated history of working in the computer software industry. Enthusiastic and dedicated person in the field of Computer Science. Skilled at my work area and believe in working with passion and work ethics. Have a good understanding of programming languages, operating systems, and databases. I have good communication skills and interested in staying updated with technology and learning new things.

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